MicroStockProfit

Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) is still reeling from the beating it took from the Street and the financial press for its last Quarter/last year’s performance.  AUY missed every meaningful benchmark (revenues, cost per ton, production volumes, etc…) and those misses are compounded by the stagnant gold prices recently.  To say that AUY “missed” those benchmarks is not to say that the company is in any trouble.  It is still profitable and has a strong balance sheet, but the market is looking for AUY to continue to be a low-cost producer and for growth.

BUT (and, that is a BIG but), AUY might be a great chart play.  It is showing that it could bounce off of near-term support and deliver a short-term gain to savvy traders.

Here is the chart with my annotations:

“Is the bad news burned into the stock price” is the simple question that traders should ask themselves.  I think that it might be.  Historically, AUY has had great elasticity and bounced off of oversold levels and returned some nice gains.  If you were to do a year chart on AUY, you would see what I am talking about.

AUY could be a nice short-term trade.  Any breaks below support and the stock should be avoided until it can build a new base…or it can issue some better news.

I was doing my scans this morning and came across GLU Mobile, Inc. (GLUU).

Simple company to understand:  Glu Mobile Inc. designs, markets, and sells games for mobile phones worldwide.

Here is a few places for your DD:  Yahoo! Finance and company site

The Chart

** Indicators are turning positive finally
** MACD bearish momentum is finally slowing and could reverse
** Volume has slowed and selling pressure appears to be easing
** Stochastics are oversold.  If MACD continues to strengthen, a bounce could be possible

Do your own DD, but I like this chart for future gains.  Co. outlook has gotten it hammered, but the company is still bullish on its prospects.

Jeffrey Dean

Editor

I wonder what is keeping ADPT from realizing its true value?  Here is a company that has ROCK SOLID financials, a preeminent position in its marketplace and is sitting on a treasure trove of cash.  In fact, ADPT has over $3.00 in cash for every share in the float.   They currently operate at a manageable loss (what company in this sector doesn’t), but I will be interested to see what happens if the data storage market comes back.

If your company has a data center, chances are you own ADPT’s equipment and software.  According to their website (www.adaptec.com), ADPT…

“has been a worldwide supplier of technologies and applications supported by major storage and system OEMs, system integrators, system builders, and value-added resellers that deliver enabling technology and products to address many of the most critical applications in data storage”

It is clear what they do as a company….they spend millions a Q on R&D to stay ahead of its competitors.  But, ADPT the stock remains a mystery.  In fact, they are factions in their institutional ownership that are trying to mount a coup based upon their belief that they have the proper leadership to make this company an attractive stock again.  Here is the latest PR that will give you a clearer understanding of what is going on at ADPT.  It appears that the action from an activist shareholder (largest single owner, by the way) will fail.  Where will that leave ADPT?

Clearly the pressure is on the current Board and management to create some kind of lift in the stock.  How quickly that can be accomplished is anyone’s guess.  What I do know is that ADPT is going NOWHERE right now.  I mean from a finanical strength standpoint.  They will have time to create the plan that can make ADPT a stock that matters…the question remains, “Can they?”

Here is the chart:  (it has been climbing incrementally, but nothing to get too excited about)

If I was to put on my rose-colored glasses and look at this chart, I could say the following:

• The stock is in accumulation
• The MACD is above the zero line and appears to be turning bullish
• The most recent run up hasn’t been volume or hype driven.  It has been a slow and steady accumulation.

What I don’t see are “hockey sticks”.  I will be interested to see what ADPT can do over the next weeks and months to get traders to pay attention again.

Dryships (DRYS) has gobbled all of the headlines in the bulk shipping category….It has been both adored and reviled by traders for all of 2009.  It’s volatility has made (and lost) lots of money for traders this year alone.  One of the companies that is in DRYS’s niche has flown below the radar all year, but I think is worth taking a look at:   OCEAN FREIGHT, INC. (OCNF).

I cannot claim to be an expert in this arena….I do not understand capacity, loads, fleet issues, etc….  I do believe that through a massive financing undertaken last year, OCNF has the financial capital to work its way through this market downturn.  The company showed only a small operating loss last Q.  Most of the large loss was due to non-recurring items (arbitrage gains, loss of sale of ships, etc…)

The chart is what caught my eye initially…. A trader buddy of mine had mentioned the company to me and when I checked it out I liked what I saw.  Here is the chart and you might see what I am seeing.

The first thing that stands out to me is the volatility of the stock….”if it goes up, look for it to come down.  If it goes down, look for it to go up”.  The latest slide has been precipitous, but there are signs that it could be reversing.  First, the stochastics indicate that it is oversold (a big upward pressure there).  The stock has reached a key support level at $1.25 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it bounced off that level.

I say this often, but as a recovering CPA, I really like fundamentals.  I mean the old-fashioned cash-in-bank, receiveables stuff.  OCNF has high debt which is usually the “kiss of death” in economic downturns, but it appears that the company has the liquidity to service its debt and, perhaps, come out stronger on the other side.  Their press releases paint a picture of a company whose fleet will be highly utilized into 2010…which is the key for a bulk shipping carrier.

With a management team that sounds like the traveling cast of Zorba the Greek (why are all shipping companies Greek-registered?), the company sounds like it might be around long enough to get noticed.  Keep it on your radar.  I don’t know how much farther it will fall, but be ready when this one turns.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Time might be right to take a look at NVAX again.  The stock was a 30 cent penny stock in March of this year and hit a high of $7.79 on September 1st.  Right now it is trading at almost half that number ($3.96).  THE QUESTION IS, “DOES IT HAVE ANY MORE LEGS”.  I don’t believe that it will have a 2,500% gain like it did from 30 cents to almost $8, but I think it might have a nice gain or two in it.

Several factors could make NVAX a winner again, as follows:

News - What caused NVAX to jump in the first place?  News about Swine Flu and NVAX was lumped in with all of the swine flu stocks and took off! Now that we are approaching flu season….what is to say that we won’t get a fresh set of news about the epidemic that could set NVAX off again.

The Chart - People have been so busy selling shares that they haven’t realized that they might have set NVAX for a bounce.  Be careful, here, though - the unhappy people that bought into NVAX in its rise will be selling shares into any spike in price.  That may shorten or reduce the length and severity of any spike.

Let’s look at the chart:

Volume is still strong (daily average of over 8MM shares traded).  the MACD is still bearish, but the angle of the bearishness is slackening.  The stochastics indicate that the stock is in an oversold position.  The Accum/Dist is still showing distribution.

I suggest watching the key indicators to see if NVAX declares its intentions.  It may go down for a day or two more, but watch for the bounce.  Definitely put this one on your trading radar.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.