MicroStockProfit

I did my screens this morning and came across a company that is on a strong downtrend.  While I am not suggesting that you “catch a falling knife” on this one, I do think that China Carbon Graphite Group, Inc. (CHGI) is worth keeping on your radar.

CHGI has had all sorts of good news,  yet the stock continues to go down.  Part of the reason is their recent cash raise.  It not only was dilutive, but also priced well below the market price.  A convertible preferred issue, priced at $1.30 conversion, gave CHGI needed funds, but set the bar at a much lower price for traders and investors.

The company continues to be profitable and with the capital raise has an even stronger balance sheet.  MInimal debt and a strong cash position make CHGI a good long-term bet.  The short term is a different matter.  Since its favorable earnings report earlier this year (and a spike in it shares from $1.40 to $3.40), the stock has drifted downwards.  It could have farther to fall, but the bearish momentum appears to be easing.

I would watch CHGI for a pause in this bearish momentum.  CHGI is not some “shadow” company.  It has real revenues and earnings, a strong balance sheet, a presence in the largest market in the world.  The chart is not its friend right now, but I don’t believe that it will continue to fall much farther.

Here is my annotated chart, so you can see for yourself.

Good luck and good trading,

Jeffrey Dean

Editor

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Netlist, Inc. (NLST) was one of the great stock success stories of 2009.  The stock limped along at around 60 cents for much of 2009, but then caught fire and zoomed to $8.00 per share in the magical month of November.  With the news of the impending release of their “game-changing” memory module, they took the market by storm.  The product allows the server to believe it has more main memory than it is supposed to and is expected to put them in direct competition with Cisco (CSCO) and with a competitive advantage.

Since its almost 900% gain in November, things have been pretty quiet for NLST.  In fact, the overall trend of the stock has been down.  The company itself is still strong.  NLST is still posting losses, but the gap is narrowing.  Its balance sheet shows a great deal of cash, no debt and strong liquidity ratios.

The chart is where I want to focus your attention on.

Since I am a short-term trader, I don’t expect to be around in this stock very long.  Short-term, it might be setting itself up for a bounce.  There are a great number of people that are trapped in it at higher prices who will be selling into any strength.  That is why (absent any news) any rally will be short-lived IMO.

Have fun and trade well,

Jeffrey Dean, Editor

Yamana Gold, Inc. (AUY) is still reeling from the beating it took from the Street and the financial press for its last Quarter/last year’s performance.  AUY missed every meaningful benchmark (revenues, cost per ton, production volumes, etc…) and those misses are compounded by the stagnant gold prices recently.  To say that AUY “missed” those benchmarks is not to say that the company is in any trouble.  It is still profitable and has a strong balance sheet, but the market is looking for AUY to continue to be a low-cost producer and for growth.

BUT (and, that is a BIG but), AUY might be a great chart play.  It is showing that it could bounce off of near-term support and deliver a short-term gain to savvy traders.

Here is the chart with my annotations:

“Is the bad news burned into the stock price” is the simple question that traders should ask themselves.  I think that it might be.  Historically, AUY has had great elasticity and bounced off of oversold levels and returned some nice gains.  If you were to do a year chart on AUY, you would see what I am talking about.

AUY could be a nice short-term trade.  Any breaks below support and the stock should be avoided until it can build a new base…or it can issue some better news.

I was doing my scans this morning and came across GLU Mobile, Inc. (GLUU).

Simple company to understand:  Glu Mobile Inc. designs, markets, and sells games for mobile phones worldwide.

Here is a few places for your DD:  Yahoo! Finance and company site

The Chart

** Indicators are turning positive finally
** MACD bearish momentum is finally slowing and could reverse
** Volume has slowed and selling pressure appears to be easing
** Stochastics are oversold.  If MACD continues to strengthen, a bounce could be possible

Do your own DD, but I like this chart for future gains.  Co. outlook has gotten it hammered, but the company is still bullish on its prospects.

Jeffrey Dean

Editor

I wonder what is keeping ADPT from realizing its true value?  Here is a company that has ROCK SOLID financials, a preeminent position in its marketplace and is sitting on a treasure trove of cash.  In fact, ADPT has over $3.00 in cash for every share in the float.   They currently operate at a manageable loss (what company in this sector doesn’t), but I will be interested to see what happens if the data storage market comes back.

If your company has a data center, chances are you own ADPT’s equipment and software.  According to their website (www.adaptec.com), ADPT…

“has been a worldwide supplier of technologies and applications supported by major storage and system OEMs, system integrators, system builders, and value-added resellers that deliver enabling technology and products to address many of the most critical applications in data storage”

It is clear what they do as a company….they spend millions a Q on R&D to stay ahead of its competitors.  But, ADPT the stock remains a mystery.  In fact, they are factions in their institutional ownership that are trying to mount a coup based upon their belief that they have the proper leadership to make this company an attractive stock again.  Here is the latest PR that will give you a clearer understanding of what is going on at ADPT.  It appears that the action from an activist shareholder (largest single owner, by the way) will fail.  Where will that leave ADPT?

Clearly the pressure is on the current Board and management to create some kind of lift in the stock.  How quickly that can be accomplished is anyone’s guess.  What I do know is that ADPT is going NOWHERE right now.  I mean from a finanical strength standpoint.  They will have time to create the plan that can make ADPT a stock that matters…the question remains, “Can they?”

Here is the chart:  (it has been climbing incrementally, but nothing to get too excited about)

If I was to put on my rose-colored glasses and look at this chart, I could say the following:

• The stock is in accumulation
• The MACD is above the zero line and appears to be turning bullish
• The most recent run up hasn’t been volume or hype driven.  It has been a slow and steady accumulation.

What I don’t see are “hockey sticks”.  I will be interested to see what ADPT can do over the next weeks and months to get traders to pay attention again.