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I wonder what is keeping ADPT from realizing its true value?  Here is a company that has ROCK SOLID financials, a preeminent position in its marketplace and is sitting on a treasure trove of cash.  In fact, ADPT has over $3.00 in cash for every share in the float.   They currently operate at a manageable loss (what company in this sector doesn’t), but I will be interested to see what happens if the data storage market comes back.

If your company has a data center, chances are you own ADPT’s equipment and software.  According to their website (www.adaptec.com), ADPT…

“has been a worldwide supplier of technologies and applications supported by major storage and system OEMs, system integrators, system builders, and value-added resellers that deliver enabling technology and products to address many of the most critical applications in data storage”

It is clear what they do as a company….they spend millions a Q on R&D to stay ahead of its competitors.  But, ADPT the stock remains a mystery.  In fact, they are factions in their institutional ownership that are trying to mount a coup based upon their belief that they have the proper leadership to make this company an attractive stock again.  Here is the latest PR that will give you a clearer understanding of what is going on at ADPT.  It appears that the action from an activist shareholder (largest single owner, by the way) will fail.  Where will that leave ADPT?

Clearly the pressure is on the current Board and management to create some kind of lift in the stock.  How quickly that can be accomplished is anyone’s guess.  What I do know is that ADPT is going NOWHERE right now.  I mean from a finanical strength standpoint.  They will have time to create the plan that can make ADPT a stock that matters…the question remains, “Can they?”

Here is the chart:  (it has been climbing incrementally, but nothing to get too excited about)

If I was to put on my rose-colored glasses and look at this chart, I could say the following:

• The stock is in accumulation
• The MACD is above the zero line and appears to be turning bullish
• The most recent run up hasn’t been volume or hype driven.  It has been a slow and steady accumulation.

What I don’t see are “hockey sticks”.  I will be interested to see what ADPT can do over the next weeks and months to get traders to pay attention again.

Dryships (DRYS) has gobbled all of the headlines in the bulk shipping category….It has been both adored and reviled by traders for all of 2009.  It’s volatility has made (and lost) lots of money for traders this year alone.  One of the companies that is in DRYS’s niche has flown below the radar all year, but I think is worth taking a look at:   OCEAN FREIGHT, INC. (OCNF).

I cannot claim to be an expert in this arena….I do not understand capacity, loads, fleet issues, etc….  I do believe that through a massive financing undertaken last year, OCNF has the financial capital to work its way through this market downturn.  The company showed only a small operating loss last Q.  Most of the large loss was due to non-recurring items (arbitrage gains, loss of sale of ships, etc…)

The chart is what caught my eye initially…. A trader buddy of mine had mentioned the company to me and when I checked it out I liked what I saw.  Here is the chart and you might see what I am seeing.

The first thing that stands out to me is the volatility of the stock….”if it goes up, look for it to come down.  If it goes down, look for it to go up”.  The latest slide has been precipitous, but there are signs that it could be reversing.  First, the stochastics indicate that it is oversold (a big upward pressure there).  The stock has reached a key support level at $1.25 and I wouldn’t be surprised if it bounced off that level.

I say this often, but as a recovering CPA, I really like fundamentals.  I mean the old-fashioned cash-in-bank, receiveables stuff.  OCNF has high debt which is usually the “kiss of death” in economic downturns, but it appears that the company has the liquidity to service its debt and, perhaps, come out stronger on the other side.  Their press releases paint a picture of a company whose fleet will be highly utilized into 2010…which is the key for a bulk shipping carrier.

With a management team that sounds like the traveling cast of Zorba the Greek (why are all shipping companies Greek-registered?), the company sounds like it might be around long enough to get noticed.  Keep it on your radar.  I don’t know how much farther it will fall, but be ready when this one turns.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Time might be right to take a look at NVAX again.  The stock was a 30 cent penny stock in March of this year and hit a high of $7.79 on September 1st.  Right now it is trading at almost half that number ($3.96).  THE QUESTION IS, “DOES IT HAVE ANY MORE LEGS”.  I don’t believe that it will have a 2,500% gain like it did from 30 cents to almost $8, but I think it might have a nice gain or two in it.

Several factors could make NVAX a winner again, as follows:

News - What caused NVAX to jump in the first place?  News about Swine Flu and NVAX was lumped in with all of the swine flu stocks and took off! Now that we are approaching flu season….what is to say that we won’t get a fresh set of news about the epidemic that could set NVAX off again.

The Chart - People have been so busy selling shares that they haven’t realized that they might have set NVAX for a bounce.  Be careful, here, though - the unhappy people that bought into NVAX in its rise will be selling shares into any spike in price.  That may shorten or reduce the length and severity of any spike.

Let’s look at the chart:

Volume is still strong (daily average of over 8MM shares traded).  the MACD is still bearish, but the angle of the bearishness is slackening.  The stochastics indicate that the stock is in an oversold position.  The Accum/Dist is still showing distribution.

I suggest watching the key indicators to see if NVAX declares its intentions.  It may go down for a day or two more, but watch for the bounce.  Definitely put this one on your trading radar.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

I did not know (until I looked it up) that the word Vitesse means “speed”…as in going fast. It is mainly a European word, but there have been a number of European sports cars that have had the name “Vitesse” in their names.

Interesting trivia about today’s blog subject, Vitesse Semiconductors (VTSS), and I hope indicative of their stock price movement soon.  To be honest, Vitesse has not gotten much love lately from the stock market.  After releasing their third quarter 2009 update, the stock plummeted from a recent high of 45 cents on August 10th to 25 cents one week later.   You can read the report for yourself here.  It certainly wasn’t great news, but it was in-line with the general economic conditions that we are experiencing.  What impresses me is that the company appears to be making some smart moves in order to ensure the long-term viability of the company:  raising cash, paring expenses, selling non-core assets and operations, etc…   Another encouraging sign is that 5% owners and insiders own 16% of VTSS and are not selling.  I would like to see some insider buying, but at least they are not like rats leaving a sinking ship!

The stock has come back up to 31 cents recently, but has farther to go in my opinion.  The chart tells me that the stock is under accumulation again and stock might be turning.  Here is the chart:

As you watch this stock, pay attention to the MACD.  It appears to be turning bullish.  Once it turns and gets above the zero line, it could really run.  The thing to remember with the MACD though is that it is a trailing indicator.  Watch the RSI and stochastics and monitor the buying activity.   If this stock runs back up to its recent high, then that will be a great gain for my readers.  The stock has a 52-week high of only 94 cents.  Make sure you don’t ride the run too long and keep a tight stop in it in case it doesn’t have enough “speed” to continue its run.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.

Hard To Treat Diseases, Inc. is a hard company to get a read on…as my title indicates. It is in the Pharma business, but not really much of a player.  They have operations in Serbia and China under two separate operating divisions and appear to have a “story to tell”.  .

In China they operate through Shenzhen Mellow Hope Pharm Industrial Co Ltd.. According to the company, Mellow Hope is the biggest exporter of Biological Vaccines in China.  HTDS purchased Mellow Hope in February of this year in an all-stock transaction.  It appears that the company has a viable product line and an active global client base.  Here is a link to the Mellow Hope web site that makes for interesting reading.

In Serbia, they have a controlling interest in a company called Slavica Bio Chem Company. Their primary focus involves the enhancement and modification of existing approved drugs such as “Virazole” for the purpose of chemical repair of damage to the CNS (central nervous system), MS (Multiple Sclerosis), SARS, Hepatitis C and HIV.  Here is the link to Slavica’s web site.

HTDS has garnered a huge amount of attention on the boards and as a stock to trade. Here is the chart:

The chart is not really compelling and tends to indicate that the stock is “taking a breather”. The MACD, while above the zero line, is indicating bearishness.  The stock is under distribution and is being sold (profits takers, anyone?).  Volume has dropped off lately and indicates that the stock is out of favor right now.  Let’s put my last statement in perspective, though.  The stock still traded 196 Million shares yesterday, off significantly from its 3-month average.  What is amazing is that the trading activity of this magnitude is occurring with only 1,072,581,000 in the float (as of Mar 30, 2009).  The thing to keep in mind is that this is a penny stock play and subject to all the manipulation and pumping of any penny.

What I find compelling is that HTDS has done some very astute things (acquisition of Mellow Hope) and appears to be very cost efficient in searching for new products.  I will be very interested to see what kind of numbers Mellow Hope can produce for the company going forward. The Serbian operation holds out great hope for the company, too.  It is working on modifications to a number of existing drugs to treat some of the more “popular” diseases of today’s society.  Working with existing drugs also means that the dreaded FDA turndown is less likely and drugs can be brought to market quicker.

I could see this company retesting its recent highs of last week (21.9 cents) and pushing into new territory. Their is no resistance above 21.9 cents and limited resistance between 11 cents and 21.9 cents.  The stock rebounded 29.41% today and may retract a little today, but I think the direction for the stock is up.  Look for the right entry point and make sure you have a tight stop on it.

I believe that HTDS has the right formula for traders and investors.

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DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS REPORT. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Neither InvestorSoup.com nor its affiliates have a beneficial interest in the mentioned company; nor have they received compensation of any kind for any of the companies listed in this communication. The information contained in our report is not an offer to buy or sell securities. We distribute opinions, comments and information free of charge exclusively to individuals who wish to receive them.