CPNE: Very Healthy in Our Opinion
In recent weeks, the majority of concern has stemmed from a lack of Q1 financial guidance and recent block selling of shares at the $1.90 mark. Firstly, CPNE's recently filed SEC filing sheds light on the highly publicized and heavily speculated block sales back in February. Here is a link to said filing:
(http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1028070/000135448807000325/filing_532.htm)
A quick peek at the filing shows that the majority of accumulation was done by JLF Partners I, L.P., JLF Partners II, L.P., and JLF Offshore Fund, Ltd.,. (CPNE brass sold 3mil + shares @ $1.90). Taking into consideration CPNE's historical growth and a lack of indicators that a slowdown is inevitable, we feel that JLF (in any capacity) is pretty unlikely to unload at current levels (trading @ $2.17 as of 12:41 EST). I'd wager they had larger gains in mind when executing this transaction and were convinced of CPNE's longer term growth potential and relative stability before pulling the trigger.
editors note: It also appears that Mr. Feinman of JLF purchased shares for his IRA account. A very positive statement of his belief in the company.
In addition, it appears that many warrant holders have filed to convert them into Rule 144 restricted shares. This process is not unhealthy in any way as these shares can not be sold for another 12 months and many of these holders have worked closely with the company over the years and would not likely to sell in high volume at current levels.
Over the past few weeks, it has become evident that a tough market can make even the most poised trader liquidate, some or even all of their small cap portfolio, however, pending any meltdown of the broader market, it is hard to imagine these holders selling off CPNE in a major way for the time being.
Q1: Keeping Up the Pace?
Although we have heard grumblings that since CPNE has not yet released too much guidance regarding Q1 performance other than letting us know that its Consumer Loyalty Group (CLG) subsidiary experienced record growth in January, a few key factors have us very optimistic that Q1 numbers will not disappoint.
First of all, the potential "sell off" expected by some Monday morning did not go down. This should provide at least a bit of credence to the belief that February's block sales were not toxic in nature. Good move on the behalf of management giving investors a few days to digest the SEC filing before a potential market nightmare today.
Next, although there is no direct correlation that we know of between a high web traffic rating on tracking sites such as Alexa.com and revenue growth, CPNE's onlinesupplier.com segment has experienced an 85% increase in global Internet traffic over the past three months. No matter how you slice it, 85% more potential customers accessing your site is extremely positive. Here's a link to Alexa.com that you may find useful:
(http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?q=Onlinesupplier.com&url=www.onlinesupplier.com)
As mentioned above, Consumer Loyalty Group, Inc. has blossomed as of late; enrolling an all-time monthly record of 91,729 paid memberships for January 2007. According to management, this growth "represented another astounding month- over-month increase in memberships from December of over 25% and over 90% from November".
Another look at CPNE's web traffic log shows that while a bit more that one-half (51.8%) of onlinesupplier.com's web traffic comes from the US, close to half comes from international visitors. This is very positive when taking into consideration management's stated dedication to global growth and also the fact that CPNE's expansion, thus far, has been largely driven by domestic business. A wider geographic reach should have provided a new avenue for growth in Q1 and should continue to moving forward.
In upcoming editions we will outline in great detail, CPNE's potential for growth in Q2 and beyond. For now though, we suggest taking a close look at how far his company has come in just over a year and developing your own opinion on what the future holds. We think you'll like what you uncover.
Need a little assistance? Check out our CPNE portal, courtesy of MSP!
http://www.microstockprofit.com/Companies/Company6.stgx
Labels: C, Commerce Planet, Commerce Planet Inc., CPNE

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