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    Stock Alert for National Bank of Greece (NBG)

    National Bank of Greece (NBG) is a Greece-based financial institution offering a range of integrated financial services, including corporate and investment banking, retail banking (including mortgage lending), leasing, stock brokerage, asset management and venture capital, insurance, real estate and consulting services. In addition, the Company is involved in various other businesses, including hotel and property management, real estate and information technology (IT) consulting. As at September 30, 2011, the Bank’s branch and ATM network in Greece is comprised of 558 domestic banking units and 1,426 ATM’s, throughout the country. It is developing and expanding alternative distribution channels for its products, such as mobile and Internet banking. After acquisitions in SE Europe, the Bank’s network overseas includes 1,144 units.

    Share Statistics (26-Jan-11)   FY

    2009

    FY

    2010

    %

    Chg

    Q3

    2010

    Q3

    2011

    %

    Chg

    Symbol NBG Revenue, $Mn
    Current price $3.13 Gross marg.
    52wk Range: $1.64-$11.85 Oper. margin -3.1% -15.1%
    Avg Vol (3m): 763,189 Net margin
    Market Cap. 14.96B              
    Shares Outstanding 4.78B EPS, $ 0.76 -0.45 -159.2% 0.18 -0.03 -116.7%

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Investment Highlights

    NBG’s American Depositary Shares (ADSs) traded higher on Thursday, joining other Greek banks boosted by the resumption of talks on a debt swap to avert a Greek default in Athens. Over 2.90 million shares exchanged hands during the session, versus the 10-day average of 1.45 million.

    Bloomberg, which cited a report by Greek newspaper Kathimerini, reported that Charles Dallara, the managing director of the Washington-based Institute of International Finance, representing Greece’s private creditors, will propose that new bonds issued as part of a debt exchange should carry an average coupon of 3.75% when he resumes Athens talks with Prime Minister Lucas Papademos.

    NBG’s ADSs added $0.36, or 13.0%, to close at $3.13, extending gains into a second day. Over the past 52 weeks,  shares have traded between $1.64  and $11.85.  Market capitalization currently stands at 14.96 billion and it has 4.78 billion outstanding shares.

    Earlier this month, NBG announced that it has received notice from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) confirming that, from December 31, 2011, its ADS have regained compliance with the NYSE’s continued listing standard that requires a minimum average closing price of $1.00 over 30 consecutive trading days.

    Shares have risen 27.2% in the last five days and 50.5% in the last month.  Year-to-date,  shares have lost 65.0%.

    Source:

    NBG Press Releases

    http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-26/greeks-banks-rise-before-debt-swap-talks-resume-athens-mover.html

    Financial Summary

    NGB posted a marginal loss of €7 million, excluding impairment losses on Greek Government bonds prompted by PSI 1 (€1,339 million after tax), for the nine months of 2011. That compares with a profit of  €259 million in the comparable period of the prior year. NBG cited the persistence of high provisions, which amounted to €1,310 million (up by +32% year-over-year), and impairments in the equities and mutual funds investment portfolio (€133 million in the nine months of 2011).

    Source: http://www.nbg.gr/wps/wcm/connect/7425d800493daac4b386f736172d79c7/Press_Release_EN_9M_2011.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=7425d800493daac4b386f736172d79c7

    Financial Strength (26-Jan-2012)

    Company

    Industry

    Sector

    S&P 500

    Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.00 0.31 0.68
    Current Ratio (MRQ) 0.00 0.86 1.06
    LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 0.00 60.53 95.89 96.26
    Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 97.52 203.80 192.85 135.33
    Interest Coverage (TTM) 0.00 0.36 27.66

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Technical Analysis

    Source: http://stockcharts.com

    NBG is above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that it is currently extended from its recent trend. Be aware, however, that a cross outside of the Bollinger Bands can sometimes be a signal of trend strength and not, necessarily, trend reversal.

    The MACD for NBG currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.

    Comparative Analysis

    Company Name Ticker Price per Mrkt. Cap. P/E P/S
    Jan26-2012 symbol Share, $ $ Mn 2011 2012 2011 2012
    Bank of America Corp. BAC 7.30 76.91B 10.00 6.52 0.83 0.80
    HSBC Holdings plc HBC 42.18 151.91B 10.52 10.36 2.13 1.92
    JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 37.49 142.53B 7.96 6.99 1.45 1.40
    Citigroup Inc. C 30.38 88.83B 7.45 6.44 1.15 1.11
    Money Center Banks Median       9.25 n/a 2.29 n/a
    National Bank of Greece NBG 3.13 14.96B n/a 5.05 2.33 2.14

    Source: Thomson Financial

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