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    Stock Alert for Oncothyreon Inc. (ONTY)

    Oncothyreon Inc. (ONTY) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused primarily on the development of therapeutic products for the treatment of cancer. The Company’s cancer vaccines are designed to stimulate the immune system to attack cancer cells, while its small molecule compounds are designed to inhibit the activity of specific cancer-related proteins. ONTY’s lead product candidate is Stimuvax, a cancer vaccine in phase III development for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ONTY has an exclusive, worldwide license to Merck KGaA of Darmstadt, Germany (Merck KGaA), for the development, manufacture and commercialization of Stimuvax.

    Share Statistics (21-July-11) FY2009 FY2010 % Chg Q12010 Q12011 % Chg
    Symbol ONTY Revenue, $Mn 2.08 0.02 -99.0% 0.01 0.14 1300.0%
    Current price $10.13 Gross marg. 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0%
    52wk Range: $2.99-$11.59 Oper. margin -108244.4% -4049.7%
    Avg Vol (3m): 1,381,720 Net margin -827.9% -78100.0% 9333.5% -7700.0% -5085.7% -34.0%
    Market Cap. $429.26
    Shares Outstanding 41.60 EPS, $ -0.76 -0.58 -23.7% -0.03 -0.24 700.0%

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Recent News

    Shares of ONTY rallied more than 15% on Wednesday after a Seeking Alpha report suggested that the small-cap cancer drug developer could report a successful phase III trial of Stimuvax, which is indicated for Stage 3 non-small cell lung cancer. Currently nearing the end of its phase III study, the drug is suggested to have an “overwhelming” 90%+ chance of success. Seeking Alpha believes ONTY investors will “at least” triple their investment on a successful clinical trial.

    ONTY climbed higher on Thursday and set a new 52 week high of $11.59.  Over 4.80 million shares have traded hands during the session, versus the 10-day average volume of 2.09 million.  ONTY is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $8.02 and above its 200-day moving average of $4.95.  The current market capitalization stands at $429.26 million and shares outstanding is at 41.60 million shares.

    Financial Summary

    ONTY reported a net loss from operations of $5.9 million for the first quarter of 2011, up from $5.4 million in the first quarter of 2010.  The Company attributed the result to increased research and development expenses, offset by a decrease in general and administrative expenses.

    For the quarter ended March 31, 2011, net loss was $7.1 million, or $0.24 per basic and diluted share, up from the prior year quarter’s net loss of $0.8 million, or $0.03 per basic and diluted share. The increase in net loss was primarily the result of a non-cash expense of $1.5 million as a result of an increase in fair value of warrant liability in the quarter ended March 31, 2011, compared with a $4.6 million decrease in fair value of warrant liability in the quarter ended March 31, 2010.

    ONTY’s cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments totaled $29.0 million as of March 31, 2011.  That compares to $28.9 million at the end of 2010, an increase of $0.1 million attributable to $5.0 million in funding from the initial term loan with General Electric Capital Corp., offset by cash used in operations and capital expenditures during the quarter.

    Financial Strength (21-July-2011)

    Company

    Industry

    Sector

    S&P 500

    Quick Ratio (MRQ) 2.95 2.07 0.69
    Current Ratio (MRQ) 10.03 3.87 2.59 1.03
    LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 34.07 20.38 22.49 125.35
    Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 40.31 24.22 27.11 164.62
    Interest Coverage (TTM) 6.18 1.62 19.08

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Analyst Consensus

    This is the consensus forecast among four polled investment analysts. Against the Oncothyreon Inc company.

    Analyst Detail

    Buy

    Outperform

    Hold

    Underperform

    Sell

    No Opinion

    Latest 2 2 0 0 0 0
    4 weeks ago 2 2 0 0 0 0
    2 months ago 1 3 0 0 0 0
    3 months ago 1 3 0 0 0 0
    Last year 1 1 0 0 0 0

    Source: markets.ft.com

    Consensus Estimates Analysis

    # of Estimates

    Mean

    High

    Low

    1 Year Ago

    SALES (in millions)
    Quarter Ending Sep-11 4 0.95 3.82 0.00 0.26
    Quarter Ending Dec-11 4 0.95 3.82 0.00 0.26
    Year Ending Dec-11 5 0.51 2.00 0.10 1.03
    Year Ending Dec-12 4 9.30 20.00 0.00 2.07
    EARNINGS (per share)
    Quarter Ending Sep-11 4 -0.16 -0.15 -0.18 -0.20
    Quarter Ending Dec-11 4 -0.16 -0.15 -0.17 -0.20
    Year Ending Dec-11 5 -0.67 -0.63 -0.76 -0.77
    Year Ending Dec-12 4 -0.42 -0.22 -0.64 -0.81

    Technical Analysis

    Source: http://stockcharts.com

    ONTY is above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that it is currently extended from its recent trend.

    The MACD for ONTY currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.

    Comparative Analysis

    Company Name Ticker Price per Mrkt. Cap. P/E P/S
    July21-2011 symbol Share, $ $ Mn 2011 2012 2011 2012
    Exelixis Inc. EXEL 8.70 1.11B n/a n/a 7.35 7.12
    Enzon Pharmaceuticals Inc. ENZN 10.41 557.42M 94.64 26.69 8.04 7.61
    GlaxoSmithKline plc GSK 44.04 112.02B 11.93 11.04 2.55 2.45
    Biotechnology  Median       19.29 n/a 1.45 n/a
    Oncothyreon Inc. ONTY 10.13 430.72M n/a n/a n/a 42.14

    Source: Thomson Financial

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