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    Stock Alert for Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET)

    Republic Airways Holdings (RJET) is an Indianapolis, Ind.-based airline holding company that owns Chautauqua Airlines, Frontier Airlines, Republic Airlines and Shuttle America.  As of December 31, 2010, the Company’s operating subsidiaries offered scheduled passenger service on 1,540 flights daily to 128 cities in 41 states, Canada, Mexico, and Costa Rica under its Frontier operations and through fixed-fee code-share agreements with AMR Corp., the parent of American Airlines Inc. (American), Continental Airlines Inc. (Continental), Delta Air Lines Inc. (Delta),  United Air Lines Inc. (United), and US Airways Inc. (US Airways). Currently, the Company provide its partners with fixed-fee regional airline services, operating as AmericanConnection, Continental Express, Delta Connection, United Express, or US Airways Express, including service out of their hubs and focus cities.

    Share Statistics (27-June-11) FY 

    2009

    FY 

    2010

    %  

    Chg

    Q1 

    2010

    Q1 

    2011

    %  

    Chg

    Symbol RJET Revenue, $Mn 1,642.22 2,653.65 61.6% 608.71 659.10 8.3%
    Current price $5.67 Gross marg. 36.4% 30.9% -15.1% 27.6% 25.2% -8.7%
    52wk Range: $4.20-$9.58 Oper. margin 5.0% -0.1%
    Avg Vol (3m): 697,191 Net margin 2.4% -0.5% -120.8% 6.0% 3.4% -43.3%
    Market Cap. 273.25M
    Shares Outstanding 48.19M EPS, $ -0.35 -0.18 -48.6% -0.85 -0.46 -45.9%

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Recent News

    Shares of RJET gained 22% in Monday’s trading after Frontier Airlines announced plans to add nonstop seasonal service between Branson, Mo and both Austin, Tex and Phoenix, Ariz. Frontier Airlines said it will be the only airline offering nonstop service on those routes. Introductory fares begin at $89 each way for the Branson to Austin nonstop route and $105 each way for the Branson to Phoenix nonstop route. The airliner already serves Denver and Milwaukee nonstop from Branson.

    The fares will be available on the Company’s Web site through Sept. 17 for travel through Oct. 31.

    Early this month, RJET reported 1.9 billion revenue passenger miles (RPMs) for the month of May, representing a 2% increase from the same month last year. Capacity was 2.3 billion available seat miles (ASMs), up 1%, while block hours were 82,515 in May 2011, unchanged from same period last year.

    Consolidated load factor was 82%, unchanged from May 2010. Over 2.8 million passengers were carried during the month, a 1% reduction from the same month last year.

    RJET added $1.01 to close Monday’s trading at $5.67 per share. Over 2.77 million shares have traded hands during the session, versus the 10-day average volume of 576.08K.  The stock has been moving within a range of $4.20 – $9.58 over the past 52-weeks. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average of $4.73 and above its 200-day moving average $5.98.

    Visit RJET at www.republicairways.com

    Financial Summary

    RJET reported operating revenues of $659.1 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2011, up 8.3% from the year ago period’s $608.7 million. The Company attributed the increase mainly to a 13.9% increase in Frontier’s unit revenues. On a GAAP basis, the Company reported a net loss of $22.4 million, or $0.46 per diluted share, for the quarter ended March 31, 2011, compared to $36.5 million net loss, or $1.06 per diluted share, for the same period last year.

    The Company posted an ex-item net loss of $18.6 million, or $0.39 per diluted share, compared to an ex-item net loss of $16.4 million, or $0.48 per diluted share, for the three month periods ended March 31, 2011, and 2010, respectively. The loss per share for the quarter ended March 31, 2011, includes the effect of the Company’s November 2010 equity offering of 13.8 million shares.

    As of March 31, 2011, RJET’s cash balance increased $37.0 million to $467.3 million from December 31, 2010. Restricted cash increased $86.8 million to $225.9 from December 31, 2010, due to the seasonality of Frontier’s bookings. However, the restricted cash balance was $13.5 million lower from March 31, 2010, due to the reduction in the Frontier’s credit card holdback from 100% to 95%. The Company’s unrestricted cash balance decreased $49.8 million, to $241.4 million, from December 31, 2010.

    Financial Strength (27-June-2011) Company Industry Sector S&P 500
    Quick Ratio (MRQ) 0.74 0.81 1.28 0.71
    Current Ratio (MRQ) 0.84 0.90 1.59 1.04
    LT Debt to Equity (MRQ) 383.06 139.13 46.66 136.76
    Total Debt to Equity (MRQ) 433.16 165.50 67.68 182.31
    Interest Coverage (TTM) 1.39 0.06 0.09 18.08

    Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

    Analyst Consensus

    This is the consensus forecast among nine polled investment analysts. Against the Republic Airways Holdings Inc company.

    Analyst Detail Buy Outperform Hold Underperform Sell No Opinion
    Latest 2 1 4 1 1 0
    4 weeks ago 2 1 3 2 1 0
    2 months ago 2 1 4 2 0 0
    3 months ago 2 2 3 1 0 0
    Last year 2 0 2 0 1 0

    The six analysts offering 12-month price targets for RJET have a median target of 5.75, with a high estimate of 9.00 and a low estimate of 3.50. The median estimate represents a 23.39% increase from the last price of 4.66.

    Source: markets.ft.com

    Consensus Estimates Analysis

    # of Estimates Mean High Low 1 Year Ago
    SALES (in millions)
    Quarter Ending Jun-11 5 725.52 733.08 717.40
    Quarter Ending Sep-11 5 764.92 778.88 753.07
    Year Ending Dec-11 8 2,846.82 2,885.28 2,763.02 2,660.83
    Year Ending Dec-12 6 2,987.11 3,105.00 2,910.00 2,745.00
    EARNINGS (per share)
    Quarter Ending Jun-11 8 -0.07 0.05 -0.15 0.53
    Quarter Ending Sep-11 8 0.31 0.45 0.18 0.54
    Year Ending Dec-11 6 0.04 0.80 -0.38 0.94
    Year Ending Dec-12 7 0.47 0.90 -0.67 0.70
    LT Growth Rate (%) 1 5.00 5.00 5.00

    Technical Analysis

    Source: http://stockcharts.com

    RJET is above the upper Bollinger Band, implying that it is currently extended from its recent trend.

    RJET’s MACD is currently indicating a weak bullish signal. Although the MACD is trending above the signal line, the indicator is still below 0, which suggests that the underlying moving averages are bearish.

    Comparative Analysis

    Company Name Ticker Price per Mrkt. Cap. P/E P/S
    June27-2011 symbol Share, $ $ Mn 2011 2012 2011 2012
    Delta Air Lines Inc. DAL 9.66 8.17B 7.16 4.81 0.23 0.22
    SkyWest Inc. SKYW 15.06 796.46M 15.37 8.23 0.21 0.21
    Southwest Airlines Co. LUV 11.39 8.52B 17.80 10.95 0.53 0.47
    Regional Airlines Median 15.14 n/a 0.46 n/a
    Republic Airways Holdings Inc. RJET 5.67 273.25M n/a 12.06 0.10 0.09

    Source: Thomson Financial

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