Stock Alert for Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F)

Ford Motor Company (F) designs, develops, manufactures, and services cars and trucks worldwide. Ford and its subsidiaries also engage in other businesses, including financing vehicles. It operates in two sectors, Automotive and Financial Services. The Automotive sector sells vehicles under Ford, Mercury, Lincoln and Volvo brand names. This sector markets cars, trucks and parts through retail dealers in North America, and through distributors and dealers outside of North America. It also sells cars and trucks to dealers for sale to fleet customers, including daily rental car companies, commercial fleet customers, leasing companies and governments. In addition, this sector provides retail customers with a range of after-the-sale vehicle services and products in areas, such as maintenance and light repair, heavy repair, collision, vehicle accessories and extended service warranty under the Genuine Ford, Lincoln-Mercury Parts and Service, Ford Custom Accessories, Ford Extended Service Plan and Motorcraft brand names. The Financial Services sector offers various automotive financing products to and through automotive dealers. It offers retail financing, which includes purchasing retail installment sale contracts and retail lease contracts from dealers, and financing to commercial customers to purchase or lease vehicle fleets; wholesale financing that comprises making loans to dealers to finance the purchase of vehicle inventory; and other financing, which consists of making loans to dealers for working capital, improvements to dealership facilities, and to purchase or finance dealership real estate. This sector also services the finance receivables and leases that it originates and purchases, makes loans to its affiliates, purchases receivables, and provides insurance services related to its financing programs.

Ford Motor Company was founded in 1903 and is based in Dearborn, Michigan.

Share Statistics (18-June-10)			FY 2007	FY 2008	% Chg	Q4 2008	Q4 2009	% Chg
Symbol	F	Revenue, $Mn	172.5B	139.3B	19.2%	38.60B	27.19B	29.6%
Current price	$11.48	Gross marg.	10.8%	6.4%	40.7%	n/a	n/a	n/a
52wk Range:	$14.57-5.12	Oper. margin	-4.7%	-10.9%	131.9%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Avg Vol (3m):	124,885,000	Net margin	-1.6%	-10.6%	84.9%	n/a	n/a	n/a
Market Cap.	39.11B
Dil. Shares Outst.	3.3B	EPS, $	-1.40	-6.41	357.9%	-2.46	0.25	89.8%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Financial Summary

Ford recently reported first-quarter 2010 net income of $2.1 billion, or 50 cents per share, a $3.5 billion improvement from first quarter 2009, as strong selling new products, improvements in its global Automotive operations and higher profits at Ford Credit boosted results.

Excluding special items, Ford reported pre-tax operating profit of $2 billion, or 46 cents per share, an improvement of $4 billion from a year ago.  It marked Ford’s highest quarterly pre-tax operating profit in six years.

Ford North America posted first-quarter pre-tax operating profit of more than $1.2 billion, a $1.9 billion improvement from first quarter 2009, as a result of higher volume and mix and favorable net pricing.  Ford operations in South America, Europe and Asia Pacific Africa as well as Ford Credit also posted pre-tax operating profits in the first quarter and improved results over the same period in 2009.

At the end of March, Ford entered into a definitive agreement to sell Volvo and related assets to Zhejiang Geely Holding Group for $1.8 billion, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. The sale is expected to close in the third quarter of 2010. As a result of the agreement to sell Volvo, all of Volvo’s 2010 results are being reported as special items and excluded from Ford’s operating results; 2009 data include Volvo.

Ford’s first-quarter revenue was $28.1 billion, up $3.7 billion from the same period a year ago. If Volvo had been excluded from 2009, Automotive revenue would have increased by $7 billion, or more than 30%.

Ford finished the first quarter with $25.3 billion in Automotive gross cash, an increase of $400 million since year end. Automotive operating-related cash outflow was $100 million during the first quarter, as Automotive pre-tax operating profit was more than offset by changes in working capital and other timing differences, as well as a $300 million payment to Ford Credit reflecting up-front subvention payment. The Company ended the first quarter with total Automotive debt of $34.3 billion, an increase of $700 million compared to year-end 2009.

On April 6, Ford paid down $3 billion of the drawn amount of its 2013 revolving credit facility. This payment has reduced Automotive gross cash and debt by $3 billion, which will be reflected on Ford’s second-quarter 2010 balance sheet. The action did not affect Automotive liquidity, as the repaid amounts remain available for borrowing.

Special items were a favorable pre-tax amount of $125 million in the first quarter of 2010, or 7 cents per share. Ford recorded a $188 million gain related to held-for-sale adjustments for Volvo, which was offset partially by $63 million of global personnel reductions and dealer-related charges.  If Volvo had continued to be reported as an ongoing operation, Ford would have reported a first-quarter pre-tax operating profit of $49 million for Volvo.

ADDITIONAL FIRST-QUARTER 2010 HIGHLIGHTS

• Increased U.S. market share by 2.7% to 16.6% and a 14.1 share of the retail market, fueled by strong sales of Fusion, F-150, Taurus and Focus
• Achieved market leadership in Canada, boosting market share to 15.5% and increasing sales by 29%
• Increased sales by 14% in the South American region and sold a record 88,000 vehicles in Brazil
• Increased sales in Europe and achieved a 9.4% market share. In March, Ford was the best selling brand in Europe for 19 markets
• Ford Asia Pacific Africa increased sales by 39 as the Fiesta gained momentum in several markets
• Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles achieved the highest customer satisfaction and the fewest number of “things gone wrong” among all full-line manufacturers, according to the first-quarter Global Quality Research System survey for the United States
• Revealed new global Ford Focus, which goes on sale early next year in North America and Europe, and in 2012 for Asia
• Revealed 2011 Ford Edge and Lincoln MKX, which reach showrooms this fall and will be the first vehicles to feature MyFord Touch and MyLincoln Touch
• Unveiled the Lincoln MKZ Hybrid, expected to be America’s most fuel-efficient luxury sedan
• Announced partnership with Microsoft to use Microsoft Hohm as a platform to help future owners of Ford’s electric vehicles manage energy use
• Began production of Figo small car for India; received 10,000 orders in first month on the market
• Began production of the next-generation F-Series Super Duty lineup with new fuel-efficient diesel and gasoline engines
• Announced Ford’s electric vehicles plan is extending to Europe with plans to launch five full-electric or hybrid vehicles for European customers by 2013
• Announced plan to increase investment in Brazil and Argentina by $450 million to more than $2.6 billion by 2015
• Announced  $2.3 billion investment in UK manufacturing facilities over the next five years to support production of low-carbon emission vehicles
• Announced $400 million investment in South Africa to support production of Ford’s next-generation compact pickup truck and Puma diesel engine
• Confirmed $400 million investment in Chicago Assembly Plant and the addition of 1,200 jobs to support production of the next-generation Ford Explorer
• Ford reports first-quarter net income of $2.1 billion, or 50 cents per share, a $3.5 billion improvement from first quarter 2009. Pre-tax operating profit of $2 billion, or 46 cents per share, a $4 billion improvement from first quarter 2009
• Ford Automotive operations posted first-quarter pre-tax operating profit of $1.2 billion, a $3.2 billion improvement from first quarter 2009
• Ford North America reported first-quarter pre-tax operating profit of more than $1.2 billion, a $1.9 billion improvement from first quarter 2009; Ford Europe earned a pre-tax operating profit of $107 million, a $692 million improvement from a year ago
• Revenue for the quarter totaled $28.1 billion, a $3.7 billion improvement from first quarter 2009
• Strong response to new vehicles drove the largest quarterly U.S. market share gain since 1977
• Ended the quarter with $25.3 billion of automotive gross cash, with operating-related cash outflow of $100 million.  Fended the quarter with $34.3 billion in automotive debt
• Ford Motor Credit Company reported first-quarter pre-tax operating profit of $828 million, an $864 million improvement from first quarter 2009
• Based on Ford’s improving performance, the gradually strengthening economy, and its present assumptions, Ford now expects to deliver solid profits this year with positive Automotive operating-related cash flow

For the first quarter of 2010, Ford’s worldwide Automotive sector reported a pre-tax operating profit of $1.2 billion, compared with a loss of $2 billion a year ago. The improvement reflected higher volume and mix, as well as improvements in net pricing across all Automotive segments.

Total vehicle wholesales in the first quarter were 1.3 million, compared with 986,000 units a year ago.  Worldwide Automotive revenue in the first quarter was $25.4 billion, up from $21 billion a year ago.

North America: For the first quarter, Ford North America reported a pre-tax operating profit of more than $1.2 billion, compared with a loss of $665 million a year ago.  The improvement was more than explained by higher volume and mix and favorable net pricing. First-quarter revenue was $14.1 billion, up from $10 billion a year ago.

South America: For the first quarter, Ford South America reported a pre-tax operating profit of $203 million, compared with a profit of $63 million a year ago.  The increase was more than explained by favorable exchange and net pricing, offset partially by higher costs.  First-quarter revenue was $2 billion, up from $1.4 billion a year ago.

Europe: For the first quarter, Ford Europe reported a pre-tax operating profit of $107 million, compared with a loss of $585 million a year ago.  The improvement was explained primarily by higher volume, lower costs and higher parts profit. First-quarter revenue was $7.7 billion, up from $5.8 billion a year ago.

Asia Pacific Africa: For the first quarter, Ford Asia Pacific Africa’s pre-tax operating profit was $23 million, compared with a loss of $97 million a year ago.  The improvement was more than explained by higher profits of unconsolidated China joint ventures  driven by higher industry volumes, favorable net pricing,  increases in industry volume outside of China and favorable exchange. First-quarter revenue was $1.6 billion, up from $1.2 billion a year ago.

Other Automotive: Other Automotive consists primarily of interest and financing-related costs and resulted in a first-quarter pre-tax operating loss of $391 million, more than explained by net interest expense of $492 million.

For the first quarter, the Financial Services sector reported a pre-tax operating profit of $815 million, compared with a loss of $62 million a year ago.

Ford Motor Credit Company: Ford Credit reported a pre-tax operating profit of $828 million in the first quarter, compared with a pre-tax loss of $36 million a year ago.  The improvement primarily reflected lower depreciation expense for leased vehicles due to higher auction values and a lower provision for credit losses, offset partially by lower volume.

OUTLOOK
Ford said it continues to make progress on all four pillars of its plan:

• Aggressively restructuring to operate profitably at the current demand and changing model mix
• Accelerating the development of new products that customers want and value
• Financing the plan and improving the balance sheet
• Working together effectively as one team, leveraging Ford’s global assets

Overall, Ford said its performance this year is off to a more encouraging start than anticipated. Based on Ford’s improving performance, the gradually strengthening economy, and its present assumptions, Ford now expects to deliver solid profits this year with positive Automotive operating-related cash flow.

Ford expects full-year 2010 U.S. industry sales will be in the range of 11.5 million to 12.5 million, consistent with the guidance previously communicated by the Company.

In Europe, Ford now expects full-year industry volume will be in the 14 million to 15 million range, which is somewhat higher than the previous guidance.  The change reflects strong first-quarter results, although uncertainty remains in Europe about the extent of payback from scrappage programs.

Initial quality improved across all of Ford’s regions based on the latest Global Quality Research System survey. Ford is on track to meet full-year quality targets.

As mentioned previously, Ford has achieved significant structural cost reductions over the past four years, and in 2010 expects full year automotive structural costs to be somewhat higher as Ford increases production to meet demand.

Ford expects full year U.S. total market share and its share of the U.S. retail market to be equal or improved compared with 2009 and Europe market share is expected to be equal to 2009.

Ford expects second-quarter 2010 production to be up compared with year-ago levels and up compared to first-quarter 2010 production. The increase reflects strong customer demand for its products, the maintenance of competitive stock levels, and the non-recurrence of prior year stock reductions.

Ford now expects Ford Credit’s 2010 profits to be about the same as 2009.  The recent improvements in used vehicle auction values and credit loss performance are expected to offset the effects of lower average receivables and the non-recurrence of certain favorable 2009 factors.

Financial Strength (18-Jun-2010)	Company	Industry	Sector	S&P 500
Quick Ratio (MRQ)	–	0.31	0.59	0.81
Current Ratio (MRQ)	–	0.36	0.72	0.97
Long-Term Debt to Equity(MRQ)	–	18.27	21.80	133.03
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ)	–	32.68	36.13	198.30

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Outperform

Hold

Underperform

Sell

No Opinion

This is the consensus forecast amongst 16 polled investment analysts. Against the Ford Motor Co company.

Analyst Detail	Buy	Outperform	Hold	Underperform	Sell	No Opinion
Latest	6	2	4	2	2	0
4 weeks ago	6	2	4	2	2	0
2 months ago	6	2	5	1	2	0
3 months ago	6	2	5	1	2	0
Last year	3	1	5	2	2	0

The 13 analysts offering 12-month price targets for Ford have a median target of 16.00, with a high estimate of 18.00 and a low estimate of 9.75. The median estimate represents a 39.37% increase from the last price of 11.48.

Source: www.ft.com

Consensus Estimates Analysis

	# of Estimates	Mean	High	Low	1 Year Ago
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-10	5	29,344.20	32,560.00	26,336.10	27,586.50
Quarter Ending Sep-10	5	28,624.60	30,800.00	26,553.90	25,790.00
Year Ending Dec-10	7	112,667.00	119,843.00	105,534.00	108,766.00
Year Ending Dec-11	7	121,456.00	134,600.00	108,366.00	120,678.00
EARNINGS (per share)
Quarter Ending Jun-10	12	0.38	0.48	0.27	-0.12
Quarter Ending Sep-10	9	0.24	0.31	0.16	-0.30
Year Ending Dec-10	15	1.30	1.60	0.94	-0.52
Year Ending Dec-11	14	1.57	2.07	1.11	0.24
LT Growth Rate (%)	4	16.70	24.30	5.00	4.00

Source: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=F

Investment Highlights

Ford continued to post strong sales and market share gains in May, with Ford, Lincoln and Mercury dealers delivering 192,253 new vehicles in May – a 23% increase versus a year ago. It marks the sixth month in a row Ford sales have increased more than 20%. Year-to-date sales totaled 783,845, up 31%.

In May, Ford retail sales were up 19% versus a year ago, and the Company gained retail market share for the 19th time in the last 20 months. Fleet sales were up 32%, primarily reflecting higher sales of Ford’s hard-working trucks to commercial customers.

Ford is benefiting from a fresh lineup of new, fuel-efficient, high-quality vehicles that deliver industry-leading levels of safety as well as smart design and value.

In April, year-over-year resale values of Ford, Lincoln and Mercury vehicles outpaced the industry. Resale values improved 24% for Ford versus 19% for the industry, based on auction data compiled by the North American Dealers Association (NADA). The margin of improvement was particularly strong on cars, where Ford improved seven points more than the industry average.

Ford also achieved the largest gain of any automaker in Automotive Lease Guide’s latest Perceived Quality Score, bringing customer perceptions more in line with Ford’s improved vehicle quality.

Strength across the Lineup

Once again, sales were higher throughout Ford’s lineup in May – continuing a trend that began in December. Trucks paced the year-to-year results with a sales increase of 48%, while cars were up 9%, and utilities were up 18%. Year-to-date, car sales were up 29%, utilities were up 30%, and trucks were up 34%.

• Ford, Lincoln and Mercury May sales totaled 192,253, up 23% versus year ago.
• All-new Super Duty powers F-Series pickup to its highest sales month in more than two years; Super Duty sales up 82% versus year ago; total F-Series sales up 49%
• Record May sales for Ford Fusion and Edge; best month yet for Transit Connect. Mustang’s May retail share increase is powered by 2011 models, which deliver even more horsepower and fuel economy
• Ford, Lincoln and Mercury year-to-date sales totaled 783,845, up 31% versus year ago
• Ford gains retail market share for the 19th time in the last 20 months, as more buyers turn to Ford’s fresh lineup of high-quality, fuel-efficient vehicles
• Ford announces plans to build 570,000 vehicles in the third quarter, up 80,000 vehicles (16%) versus third quarter 2009; second quarter plan increased by 15,000 vehicles

Other sales highlights include:

• Ford Fusion, Motor Trend’s Car of the Year, set a May sales record of 22,381, up 13% versus the previous record set last year. Fusion has set monthly sales records in 13 of the last 14 months, and sales have been up 14 months in a row.

• Ford Taurus sales totaled 6,466 in May, up 98%. Ford Focus sales were up 13%.
• Ford Mustang’s retail share is on the rise, boosted by the arrival of the new 2011 Mustang with new V-6 and V-8 engines that deliver more horsepower and improved fuel economy.  The new 3.7-liter V-6 achieves 305 hp and is the first production car ever to achieve 300-plus horsepower and 30-plus highway miles per gallon. The new 5.0-liter V-8, offered on the Mustang GT, is at the top of its class with fuel economy of 26 mpg highway and delivers 412 hp.  Mustang’s retail share in May was the highest for any month in a year.
• With sales of 49,858, Ford’s F-Series posted a 49% sales increase in May. Year-to-date, F-Series sales are up 35%. Ford’s leadership position in the truck market is strengthened by the arrival of the 2011 model F-Series Super Duty – the most capable, fuel-efficient heavy-duty pickup in the industry. For the second month in a row, sales of the all-new 2011 Super Duty were more than double Ford’s plan for the month. Super Duty sales were up 82% versus a year ago. F-Series sales have increased six months in a row, and May’s increase was the largest.
• Utility vehicles also posted strong sales increases. Ford Edge set a May sales record of 13,660, up 43%. Ford Escape sales were up 17%, and Mercury Mariner sales were up 22%. Ford Escape is America’s best-selling utility vehicle. Sales for the Ford Explorer and Expedition and Mercury Mountaineer also were higher than a year ago.
• Sales for Ford’s E-Series van (Econoline/Club Wagon) were up 34% versus a year ago, and sales for the Transit Connect were the highest for any month so far.

North American Production

In the third quarter of 2010, Ford plans to produce 570,000 vehicles, up 80,000 vehicles (16%) versus the third quarter 2009.  The increase reflects higher consumer demand across Ford’s entire family of cars, utilities and trucks.  Ford’s second-quarter production plan is 640,000 vehicles, up 15,000 vehicles from the prior forecast.

Ford’s Turkish unit Ford Otosan (FROTO.IS) has raised its 2010 sales target to 264,000 vehicles from a previous target of 259,000. It also expects production to reach 219,000 units from a previous 217,000, according to an investor presentation posted on the automaker’s Web site. The revised targets indicate a 23% rise over last year’s sales and reflect the Company’s expectations for a 17% expansion of the domestic car market.

Ford Otosan sees domestic sales of 105,000 units and exports of 159,000.

Source: http://www.ford.com/

Technical Analysis

Source: http://stockcharts.com

Monday, Ford closed above its 13-day moving average. This is generally considered to be an indication of a bullish trend.

Ford has been relatively stable recently. This is evidenced by the width of its Bollinger Bands which are tighter than normal. Additionally, Ford is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

Ford’s MACD is currently indicating a weak bullish signal. Although the MACD is trending above the signal line, the indicator is still below zero, which suggests that the underlying moving averages are bearish.

Comparative Analysis

Company Name	Ticker	Price per	Mrkt. Cap.	P/E		P/S
Jun-18-2010	symbol	Share, $	$ Mn	2010	2011	2010	2011
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.	NSANY	15.08	30.75B	32.30	n/a	0.37	n/a
Volkswagon AG (ADR)	VLKAY	18.00	41.86B	26.03	n/a	0.31	n/a
HONDA MOTOR CO. LTD.	HMC	30.08	54.59B	18.58	n/a	0.59	n/a
Auto & Truck Manufacturers Median			32.15B	25.63	n/a	30.42	n/a
Ford Motor Co.	F	11.48	39.11B	7.57	n/a	0.34	n/a

Source: Thomson Financial

Insider Trading Activity

NET SHARES PURCHASE ACTIVITY Inside Purchases – Last 6 Months
	Shares	Transaction
Purchases	n/a	0
Sales	1,798,3000	12
Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	(1,798,300)	12
Total Insider Shares Held	121.61M	n/a
% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	(1.5%)	n/a

Net Institutional Purchases — Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr
	Shares
Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	295,779,000
% Change in Institutional Shares Held	10.8%

Source: Yahoo Finance

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