Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: $EXM)

Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: $EXM)

Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (EXM) is a provider of worldwide sea borne transportation services for dry bulk cargo, including among others, iron ore, coal and grain, collectively referred to as major bulks, and steel products, fertilizers, cement, bauxite, sugar and scrap metal, collectively referred to as minor bulks. EXM’s fleet is managed by one of its wholly owned subsidiaries, Maryville Maritime Inc. (Maryville). As of April 27, 2009, the Company owned a fleet of 40 vessels, and together with seven Panamax vessels under bareboat charters, operates 47 vessels, five Capesize, 14 Kamsarmax, 21 Panamax, two Supramax and five Handymax, with a total carrying capacity of approximately 3.9 million deadweight tons (dwt). On April 15, 2008, the Company completed its acquisition of Quintana Maritime Ltd. (Quintana). As a result of the acquisition, Quintana operates as a wholly owned subsidiary of Excel under the name Bird.

The Company was founded in 1988 and is based in Athens, Greece.

Share Statistics (16-Apr-10)			FY 2007	FY 2008	% Chg	Q4 2008	Q4 2009	% Chg
Symbol	EXM	Revenue, $Mn	177.5M	696.1M	292.2%	189.2M	186.2M	1.6%
Current price	$6.54	Gross marg.	73.6%	78.0%	6.0%	72.6%	76.2%	5.0%
52wk Range:	$11.70-4.83	Oper. margin	52.1%	7.2%	86.2%	-136.4%	50.1%	136.7%
Avg Vol (3m):	1,408,750	Net margin	47.8%	-6.4%	113.4%	-175.5%	43.9%	125.0%
Market Cap.	522.65M
Dil. Shares Outst.	79.9M	EPS, $	-4.25	-1.21	128.5%	-2.95	0.83	128.1%

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Financial Summary

Fourth Quarter 2009 Highlights:

· Revenue from operations for the quarter amounted to $186.2 million as compared to $189.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.

· Net profit for the quarter was $81.8 million or $1.00 per weighted average diluted share compared to a loss of $332.1 million or $7.56 per weighted average diluted share in the fourth quarter of 2008.

The fourth quarter 2009 results include a non-cash unrealized interest-rate swap gain of $8.1 million compared to a non-cash unrealized interest-rate swap loss of $40.2 million in the corresponding period in 2008. The changes in the fair values of interest rate swaps are recorded in income as they do not meet the criteria for hedge accounting. In addition, the fourth quarter 2009 results include a non cash loss on disposal of an ownership interest in one of our joint ventures amounting to $3.7 million.

Net income, excluding the above items, for the fourth quarter of 2009 would have amounted to $77.4 million or $0.95 per weighted average diluted share compared to an adjusted net income for the fourth quarter of

2008 of $72.3 million or $1.64 per weighted average diluted share.

· Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2009 was $62.0 million compared to $54.9 million for the fourth quarter of 2008.

· An average of 47 and 47.1 vessels were operated during the fourth quarters of 2009 and 2008, respectively, earning a blended average time charter equivalent rate of $22,686 and $23,207 per day, respectively.

Year ended December 31, 2009 Highlights:

· Revenue from operations for the year ended December 31, 2009, amounted to $756.6 million from $696.1 million in the year ended December 31, 2008.

· Net profit for year ended December 31, 2009, was $339.8 million or $4.85 per weighted average diluted share compared to a loss of $55.9 million or $1.53 per weighted average diluted share in the respective period of 2008.

· The 12 months 2009 results include a non-cash unrealized interest-rate swap gain of $27.2 million compared to an unrealized interest rate swap loss of $25.8 million in the corresponding period in 2008.

Net income for 2009 includes also a non-cash item of $0.1 million relating to the resulting gain from the sale of the vessel Swift and $3.7 million relating to the loss on disposal of our ownership interest in one of our joint ventures. Net income, excluding the above items, would have amounted to $316.2 million or $4.52 per weighted average diluted share for the year ended December 31, 2009, compared to an adjusted net income of $334.1 million or $9.01 per weighted average diluted share for the respective period in 2008.

· Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2009, was $231.7 million compared to $308.0 million for the respective period of 2008.

Financial Strength (16-Apr-2010)	Company	Industry	Sector	S&P 500
Quick Ratio (MRQ)	0.66	1.09	1.47	0.80
Current Ratio (MRQ)	0.68	1.21	1.83	0.95
Long-Term Debt to Equity (MRQ)	75.74	116.79	88.47	146.05
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ)	84.84	138.16	117.73	210.80

Source: Reuters.com, SEC Filings.

Analyst Consensus

Buy

Outperform

Hold

Underperform

Sell

No Opinion

This is the consensus forecast amongst 12 polled investment analysts. Against the Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd company.

Analyst Detail	Buy	Outperform	Hold	Underperform	Sell	No Opinion
Latest	1	0	6	1	4	0
4 weeks ago	1	0	6	1	4	0
2 months ago	1	0	7	1	4	0
3 months ago	1	0	7	1	4	0
Last year	1	0	3	1	4	1

The eight analysts offering 12-month price targets for EXM have a median target of 5.00, with a high estimate of 10.00 and a low estimate of 2.70. The median estimate represents a -25.15% decrease from the last price of 6.68.

Source: www.ft.com

Consensus Estimates Analysis

	# of Estimates	Mean	High	Low	1 Year Ago
SALES (in millions)
Quarter Ending Jun-10	5	111.19	171.93	90.86	164.24
Quarter Ending Sep-10	5	106.61	158.98	87.00	162.87
Year Ending Dec-10	9	423.87	661.66	344.00	384.60
Year Ending Dec-11	8	393.72	429.81	294.00	418.77
EARNINGS (per share)
Quarter Ending Jun-10	6	0.14	0.20	0.05	0.20
Quarter Ending Sep-10	6	0.10	0.22	-0.03	0.22
Year Ending Dec-10	11	0.32	0.76	-0.07	0.57
Year Ending Dec-11	7	-0.04	0.76	-0.90	0.56
LT Growth Rate (%)	1	11.00	11.00	11.00	–

Source: http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/financialHighlights?symbol=EXM

Investment Highlights

EXM last month announced Charalampos Mazarakis as the Company’s CEO. Mazarakis will assume his position in mid May 2010. The Company also announced that Pavlos Kanellopoulos has been appointed as the Company’s CFO. Kanellopoulos will assume his position in early April 2010.

Source: http://www.excelmaritime.com/

Technical Analysis

Source: http://stockcharts.com

EXM is trading above its 50-day moving average. This is considered to be the sign of a bullish trend. There is added weight to this indication because the moving average is rising and suggests that there has been buying interest in this stock.

EXM is trading within its Bollinger Bands. This is a normal condition and suggests that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold relative to the recent price action.

The MACD for EXM currently indicates a strong bullish signal for two reasons. First, the MACD is above the signal line, a 9-day moving average. Second, the MACD is above 0, which implies that the underlying moving averages are trending higher.

Comparative Analysis

Company Name	Ticker	Price per	Mrkt. Cap.	P/E		P/S
April-16-2010	symbol	Share, $	$ Mn	2009	2010	2009	2010
Safe Bulkers Inc.	SB	8.05	530.21M	2.65	n/a	3.26	n/a
Navio Maritime Partners L.P.	NMM	18.60	526.69M	12.70	n/a	6.00	n/a
Paragon Shipping Inc.	PRGN	4.62	236.70M	2.52	n/a	1.58	n/a
Dry Shipping Median			431.20M	5.95	n/a	3.61	n/a
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd.	EXM	6.54	522.65M	1.35	n/a	0.68	n/a

Source: Thomson Financial

Insider Trading Activity

NET SHARES PURCHASE ACTIVITY Inside Purchases – Last 6 Months
	Shares	Transaction
Purchases	n/a	n/a
Sales	n/a	n/a
Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	n/a	n/a
Total Insider Shares Held	n/a	n/a
% Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	n/a	n/a

Net Institutional Purchases — Prior Qtr to Latest Qtr
	Shares
Net Shares Purchased (Sold)	n/a
% Change in Institutional Shares Held	n/a

Source: Yahoo Finance

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